Stephenβs view
Over the last few days, I've read a lot of news articles and opinion pieces about what happened in Ceuta last week.
In one sentence: between 60,000 and 70,000 migrants crossed into Spain's African enclave of Ceuta, over two or three days, mostly by swimming around the border, and approximately a hundred died.
Some politicians and commentators have blamed the Spanish government for being too soft on illegal immigration, particularly after Spain gave a legal status and permission to work to half a million undocumented migrants and asylum seekers this year.
Some reactions have been nonsensical. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said that Spain should be suspended from the Schengen free-travel zone. Italy has started checking passports of people arriving from Spain. This does not make sense for two important reasons, that Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez rightly pointed out. 1. Ceuta is not in the Schengen area. It has a special status, and people cannot travel freely from Ceuta to mainland Spain. The number of migrants who crossed into Ceuta last week who have arrived in mainland Spain is zero. 2. Italy does not have a land border with Spain, so Italy is checking the passports of people arriving from Spain by plane or by sea. The probability that a migrant is going to arrive in Ceuta, somehow travel to mainland Spain, and then choose to fly to Italy, is virtually zero.
(Interestingly, the country with the most irregular arrivals in 2025 was not Spain - it was Italy)
Of course, it may be possible that some of the people who crossed into Ceuta last week were influenced by Spain's recent migration policy, however, there are many strange things that happened in this wave of migrants that make me think that other factors were more important.
Firstly, out of all of the people who came over, most of them were Moroccan. This is unusual because in most statistics for illegal crossings into Spain, fewer than one in five are generally Moroccan citizens. There didn't appear to be many Sub-Saharan Africans, who normally make up around half of arrivals into Spain.
Secondly, almost all of them left very easily - most of them the day after they arrived. You would expect them to make more of an effort to stay if they were truly refugees. This young Moroccan man, who was returning to Morocco, admits that he "didn't know why he's come" to Ceuta, and said that he was going home, suggesting that he probably lived close by. Most of the interviews I've seen with people who want to stay have been with non-Moroccans.
There have been some suggestions that Morocco deliberately allowed (or even encouraged) people to cross into Ceuta last week. It is not possible for me to know whether this is true, or to what extent.
But one thing that does seem to be true is that there was a lot of false information spreading on social media that made many people think that they could and should cross into Ceuta last week. This misinformation may have been spread by trafficking gangs, or by a state that wants to see more destabilisation of the EU (like Russia), or it may just be the unfortunate reality of social media - that lies spread fast and there is almost nothing to stop them.
If there was any organisation behind spreading this false information, then they are responsible for around a hundred deaths. Spain is not responsible.
Have a great weekend.
Stephen
P.S. Tell me if you agree or disagree!
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