Stephen’s view:
(pssst... if you want to skip the depressing bit, then just go to the p.s.)
I think that the Islamic Republic of Iran is stronger now than at the start of this war.
This might seem strange, as the Supreme Leader of 36 years was killed, as well as the Defence Minister, the head of the IRGC, and dozens of other high-ranking officials, and Israel and the US have bombed hundreds of military targets throughout the country. According to Iran, thousands of civilians have also been killed.
Iran has also burned bridges* with all of its neighbours that host US bases, by firing drones and missiles at them, sometimes killing civilians.
So how could I possibly think that the Islamic Republic is stronger now than it was before the war?
Largely, it's because of the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Republic has realised that they really can hold the world hostage at this vital chokepoint. Despite US attacks greatly degrading Iran's navy and missile systems, Iran now knows that all it needs is some cheap drones or a few men on a small boat to attack (or even just threaten to attack) commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and everything comes to a standstill. They know that for the US to stop them from having this ability, the US would have to commit to a much bigger, probably land-based war. They know that the US has no appetite for that.
Furthermore, they have something that the US doesn't; time. It doesn't make much of a difference for the theocrats and militants that now run Iran how much longer this war goes on. They may lose some more military installations, but they can be recovered. They may lose some more civilians, but they killed tens of thousands of their own people in January, so that probably isn't too concerning for them. The US can't wait for this to be over - the average people want their gas prices to come down, and the politicians want it to be over before the next election cycle.
One thing we don't know, however, is exactly who is the Iranian regime right now. There may be an internal power struggle happening that we can't see.
But, whoever it is, at the moment they have taken on the world's biggest superpower, and now the world's biggest superpower appears more desperate for a ceasefire than they are.
Have a great weekend.
Stephen
P.S. *Burned bridges is metaphorical. It means damaged relations.
P.P.S. I love to hear why I'm wrong. Hit 'reply' and tell me.
P.P.P.S. During my life I've probably met about 100 or 200 Iranians. Iranians to me are the people who are the most different to their government that I have ever met. Of course, I've met them outside of Iran, so they are likely to be more liberal than those that have chosen to stay. But, for comparison, I've also met hundreds of Pakistanis and Afghans, direct neighbours of Iran. The majority of Pakistanis and Afghans I've met have been very conservative and very religious, even if they don't like their government. The Iranians I've met, on the other hand, have been as liberal as the average European. They've been open, expressive, and fun. I hope that one day I can explore their beautiful country with them.
