Stephen’s view:
My view, this Friday, is that I have no idea what is going to happen with Iran.
When talking about negotiations with Iran, US President Donald Trump likes to say that the US "has all the cards". But this clearly isn't true, as Iran has been playing its major 'card' - the Strait of Hormuz - since the first day of this war. The closure of the Strait has had profound effects on the world's economy.
The fact that the US military is the strongest in the world isn't stopping Iran from keeping the Strait closed. In fact, it only needs the threat of a possible attack using a long-range drone or small weapons on a speedboat to effectively make passing through the Strait of Hormuz too dangerous for commercial ships.
It's not clear that the US could change this situation, even if it started bombing again.
President Trump clearly wants this war to end as soon as possible. He probably thought that this war wasn't going to go as it has done - that it was going to be more of a Venezuela-style situation of immediate leadership change and a compliant new regime, but it hasn't gone that way. Trump's approval ratings are at their lowest levels ever, and many of his previous supporters are complaining that he lied when he said he wasn't going to start any wars.
I think that Trump and the leadership of Iran (although it isn't exactly clear who that is) both want to save face.
Saving face means attempting to retain your dignity and respect through a situation - in this case, peace negotiations.
But the reason that I say that I have no idea how this is going to end, is that in attempting to save face, the Trump administration and the Islamic Republic of Iran have opposing goals.
Trump wants to show that he won the war, that it was worth it, and that any deal that is agreed is better than the Obama-era nuclear deal that Trump cancelled during his first term. Iran's new leaders will want a deal that ensures that the US and Israel will not start bombing again whenever they want, an end to sanctions, and, either no nuclear deal at all, or one very similar to the Obama deal.
I can't see how these two sides can reconcile.
Have a great weekend.
Stephen
P.S. Send me a sentence with "save face" and I'll tell you if it's right!