Stephenβs view:
This is the 11th newsletter, and the 11th opinion piece that I have written, but it is the first one about my own country - the United Kingdom.
Actually, I'm going to contradict something that I just wrote in the "graph of the week" section.
I wrote "there are signs that the United Kingdom's traditional two-party system is over"; and there certainly are signs of that, with the rise of Reform on the right, and the Greens on the left. There have been a series of articles in the media about the fall of Labour and the Conservatives recently.
But I am sceptical that this momentum for Reform and the Greens will continue until 2029, when the next general election will probably be held.
One reason is that by 2029, Reform will no longer be only seen as a party of outsiders, or a party of protest. By 2029, they will have held hundreds, possibly thousands, of council seats, and will have control of many councils, including my home county of Kent, where there have already been reports of chaos and infighting between Reform councillors.
Another reason is that one of the major motivating factors for people choosing Reform is the decades-old complaint that immigration is too high. Current signs are that immigration levels are falling and will continue to fall, including the widely reported crossings from France to England in small boats.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is very unpopular now, but I think that if he is able to point to significantly lower migration numbers by 2029, then this could help him.
Finally, US President Donald Trump is extremely unpopular in the UK - one poll in March showed that only 14% of Britons view him positively. Reform leader Nigel Farage is close to Trump and has often promoted similar politics to Trump's. I think that in a general election campaign other parties, including Labour, are likely to use this against Reform - particularly in 2029 when they don't have to worry about how Trump will react to being portrayed negatively!
A lot can change in three years.
Have a great weekend.
Stephen
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